Statistics Colloquium: Dr. Ya'acov Ritov

Title:  Believing and inference from King David to Thomas Bayes

Abstract:  We argue that Bayesian inference in complex models is based on incredible believes which influence in unpredictable ways the conclusion. We demonstrate the argument by theoretical examples, and standard application of Bayesian inference for archaeological data (related to the existence of the United Monarchy). Finally, we contrast the Bayesian approach to empirical Bayes point of view.